Dasar Luar Malaysia Terhadap China Sehingga Era Pentadbiran Pakatan Harapan: Membina Saling Percaya dalam Situasi Geopolitik yang Berubah (Malaysia’s Foreign Policy Towards China Until the Administration of Pakatan Harapan: Building Mutual Trust in Changing Geopolitics)

Abstract

Persaingan antara Amerika Syarikat dengan China ketika era ini adalah lebih kompleks berbanding ketika era Perang Dingin. Senario tersebut dapat dilihat melalui Perang Perdagangan, teknologi 5G, inisiatif projek mega, isu Laut China Selatan dan yang terbaharu ialah isu Covid-19. Malaysia telah mengambil pendekatan pragmatik dan lebih berhati-hati agar tidak terperangkap dengan persaingan kedua-dua buah kuasa tersebut. Walaupun begitu, buat pertama kali ketika era Pakatan Harapan (PH), Malaysia telah mengambil keputusan membatalkan projek mega kereta api laju Kuala Lumpur-Singapura (HSR), perbincangan semula kos pembinaan Laluan Rel Pantai Timur (ECRL) dan isu grey zone di Laut China Selatan. Peristiwa tersebut telah mewujudkan ketegangan hubungan bilateral Kuala Lumpur-Beijing. China bertindak menangguhkan sebarang bentuk kerjasama untuk menilai semula dasar luar Kuala Lumpur terhadap Beijing di bawah kerajaan baharu Pakatan Harapan. Walau bagaimanapun, Mahathir mengadakan rundingan semula dengan China untuk meneruskan projek-projek tersebut. Keputusan yang telah dijangka meninggalkan impak yang signifikan mengapa Malaysia meningkatkan keyakinan dan kerjasama dengan China walaupun berhadapan dengan ancaman keselamatan nasional. Objektif kajian ialah menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi peningkatan hubungan bilateral diplomasi dengan menggunakan kaedah kepustakaan dan temu bual. Skop kajian bermula pada tahun 1971 sehingga tahun 2018. Kajian mengaplikasikan teori realisme neoklasikal dan konsep keseimbangan ancaman kerana menghujahkan respon dan pendirian Malaysia terhadap China berdasarkan faktor ancaman, risiko dan peluang. Hasil kajian mendapati trend hubungan kerjasama bilateral Malaysia-China dipengaruhi oleh faktor kebolehpercayaan. Kedua, faktor kepimpinan dalam mengenal pasti konteks ancaman dan peluang turut mempengaruhi hubungan bilateral. Ketiga, keharmonian ekonomi, politik dan diplomatik memerlukan hubungan saling percaya dan kebergantungan seiring dengan order antarabangsa.

Kata kunci: China; Dasar Luar; Geopolitik; Malaysia; Saling Percaya

Abstract

The competition between the United States and China is now more complex compared to the era of the Cold War. This is evident from the Trade War, the issue of 5G technology, megaproject initiatives, the South China Sea issue and most recently the Covid-19 issue. Malaysia has taken a pragmatic approach and has been careful not to get caught up in the competition between the two powers. During the Pakatan Harapan (PH) era, Malaysia decided to cancel the Kuala Lumpur-Singapore high-speed rail (HSR) mega project, renegotiate the construction cost of the East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) as well as the grey zone issue in the South China Sea. These decisions created tension in the Kuala Lumpur-Beijing bilateral relations. In response, China delayed any form of cooperation to re-evaluate Kuala Lumpur’s foreign policy towards Beijing under the new Pakatan Harapan government. However, Mahathir successfully renegotiated with China to proceed with the projects. This event is expected to leave a significant impact on why Malaysia is increasing its confidence and cooperation with China despite facing national security threats. By utilizing library research and interviews this study analyzes the factors influencing the improvement of bilateral diplomatic relations between Malaysia and China from 1971 until 2018. The study applies the theory of neoclassical realism and the concept of threat balance to argue that Malaysia’s response and stance towards China are based on threat, risk, and opportunity factors. First, it finds that the trend in Malaysia-China bilateral cooperation is influenced by the perception of trust. Second, the factor of leadership in identifying threats and opportunities also influences bilateral relations. Third, economic, political, and diplomatic harmony requires a relationship of mutual trust and interdependence in line with the international order.

Keywords: China; Foreign Policy; Geopolitics; Malaysia; Reliability