Kecelaruan iklim global: Satu analisis awal (Global climatic confusion: A preliminary analysis)

Abstract

Sumbangan ilmu para saintis seperti John Tyndall, Svante Arrhenius dan juga Milutin Milankovitch di dalam merangsang kefahaman ilmu sains atmosfera tidak boleh dinafikan. Hasil penelitian mereka telah menimbulkan usaha masa kini untuk mengurangkan kesan gas rumah kaca terhadap pemanasan global berterusan. Namun, kegagalan program pengurangan karbon telah menimbulkan kecelaruan dalam pengurusan adaptasi iklim global. Ada dalam kalangan pakar tidak melihat gas CO2 sebagai bahan pencemar, malahan ianya dilihat sebagai bahan hayat penting untuk vegetasi dan kehidupannya. Kecelaruan juga timbul apabila wujud jemaah pakar kajiiklim dunia yang mempersoalkan hasil penelitian IPCC terhadap kesensitifan iklim, pemodelan suhu dan juga kaitannya dengan bencana persekitaran. Kajian ini cuba membuktikan wujudnya kecelaruan di dalam memahami aspek pemanasan global dan hubungkaitannya dengan kehadiran bencana persekitaran. Secara rasionalnya, terdapat penelitian saintifik berimpak tinggi yang berjaya memberi pandu arah kepada kefahaman asas yang benar, walaupun hasilan berkenaan tidaklah selari dengan kemahuan penyelidikan arus perdana.

Katakunci: kecelaruan iklim, kesensitifan iklim, pemanasan global, pengurangan karbon, perubahan iklim, penyelidkan iklim arus perdana

The contribution by scientists such as John Tyndall, Svante Arrhenius and Milutin Milankovitch in stimulating the understanding of atmospheric sciences can not be denied as they have led to the current efforts to reduce the impact of greenhouse gases on global warming. However, the failure of carbon reduction programmes have led to confusion in the management of global climate adaptation. They are some experts who do not believe in the idea of CO2 as a pollutant, and rather regard it as important for the life of vegetation. Confusion also arises among experts who question the IPCC research results especially with regard to climate sensitivity, its modeling and how all this could be associated with environmental disasters. This study brought to light some of the confusion existing in understanding global warming and its relation to environmental disasters. It proved that there were high-impact scientific researches that successfully did provide fundamental understanding of the truth of the matter but that their findings were not normally given the spotlight as they did not coincide with mainstream research understanding.

Keywords: carbon reduction, climate change, climatic confusion, climate sensitivity, global warming, mainstreamclimatic research