Politik Melaka kontemporari: Analisis pilihan raya umum negeri Melaka 2021 dan selanjutnya (Contemporary politics in Melaka: An analysis of the Melaka state election 2021 and beyond)

Abstract

PRN-15 Negeri Melaka menyaksikan perubahan lanskap politik Malaysia yang signifikan terutamanya dari aspek pemuafakatan elit, keutuhan sistem kepartian dan persaingan politik yang menghasilkan dinamika yang menarik. Persaingan tiga penjuru antara Barisan Nasional (BN), Pakatan Harapan (PH) dan Perikatan Nasional (PN) merebut 28 kerusi Dewan Undangan Negeri (DUN) Melaka berlangsung dengan sengit sepanjang November 2021. Sewaktu Pilihan Raya Umum 2018 (PRU-14), PH menumbangkan BN dengan majoriti satu kerusi – dengan mendominasi kawasan bandar dan pinggiran bandar khasnya konsituen majoriti Cina dan campuran. Menggunapakai kaedah kajian lapangan dan juga sumber sekumber, artikel ini menhujahkan keputusan PRN Melaka 2021 secara signifikannya dibentuk oleh faktor perpecahan parti pembangkang, selain kedudukan BN sebagai penyandang di kedua-dua peringkat negeri dan persekutuan - yang memberikan parti itu kelebihan dalam memenangi pilihan raya itu. Dengan ketiadaan Bersatu (komponen Melayu konservatif) di dalam PH, dan koordinasi pembangkang yang mantap, keadaan PH di dalam PRN ini persis dengan keadaan Pakatan Rakyat (PR) dalam PRU 2013, meskipun pihak penyandang turut menghadapi krisis dalaman dan isu-isu besar. Implikasi kajian ini memperlihat potensi BN untuk mempertahankan kedudukannya bukan sahaja di Melaka, tetapi juga di peringkat persekutuan pada PRU ke-15 sekiranya pembangkang gagal mengkoordinasi persaingan mereka secara bersama dalam berhadapan dengan BN.

Kata Kunci:  Barisan Nasional, Pakatan Rakyat, Perikatan Nasional, politik Melaka, Pilihan Raya Negeri Melaka 2021

The Melaka State PRN-15 had demonstrated a substantial shift in the political climate in Malaysia, particularly in terms of inter-party consensus, the strengh of the party system, and political competition that generated intriguing dynamics. In the election, which was held in November 2021, the Barisan Nasional (BN), the Pakatan Harapan (PH), and the Perikatan Nasional were in a three-way race (PN) competing for the twenty-eight legislative seats. In the 2018 General Election (GE), the BN was defeated by the PH by one state seat, with the latter dominance in the urban and suburban areas particularly among Chinese majority and mixed constituencies. Based on field research conducted during the election and secondary sources, this article argues that the results of the 2021 Melaka were significantly shaped by the opposition discoordination and the advantage enjoy by the BN as the incumbent. Without Bersatu, the conservative Malay component, in the PH, and coordinated forces against the BN, the PH situation in this election was akin to the Pakatan Rakyat (PR) in the 2013 GE, albeit with the fact that the incumbent was confronted with internal struggle apart from the presence of several fundamental issues. This research result indicates that the BN has a big potential to win not only in Melaka, but also at the federal level in the 15th GE if the oppositions remain uncoordinated in the near future. 

Keywords: Barisan Nasional, Pakatan Rakyat, Perikatan Nasional, Politics in Melaka, 2021 Melaka State Election, Politics in Melaka