Antara Kubu dan Lubuk: Transisi Politik Johor dalam Pilihan Raya Umum Ke-15 (Between the Fort and the Moat: Johor’s Political Transition in the 15th General Election)

Abstract

In analyzing the national trend of Malaysian politics, Johor politics have received special consideration for a long time. Johor’s political significance is also based on the state’s ethnic diversity, closely resembling the national demographic composition. The triumph of the National Front (BN) in the Johor State Elections in 2022 is a catalyst for the 15th General Election Malaysia (GE-15) to be held, which is thought to be favorable to UMNO-BN. However, in GE-15, held eight months later, UMNO-BN failed to continue its winning momentum in Johor. Based on this development, it is an intriguing occurrence to analyze the dynamics of Johor’s varied political trends. This study conducted qualitatively found that GE-15 in Johor shows a dynamic trend in the correlation between technical and sentimental factors that drive its trajectory. Overall, GE-15 in Johor is more overshadowed by national sentiment than local sentiment, which plays a less significant influence. Supported by sentimental factors, technical factors such as the split of the Malay vote in some urban and semi-urban areas gave The Alliance of Hope (PH) an advantage through the Chinese vote. BN and The National Alliance (PN) failed to dominate urban and semi-urban areas since the Malay vote was split into three factions. In rural areas, the tendency of BN voters to shift to PN voters continues to expand. Even though UMNO won the areas, GE-15 data indicates the party’s support is declining, and has become critical of UMNO. Based on the results of the GE-15 in Johor, this article argues that Johor no longer serves as UMNO’s bastion; instead, this status began to catch up with PH, which is the voter’s choice in most urban and semi-urban areas due to the vote division of the Malays.