Pendapat politik awam pra-Pilihan Raya Umum ke-13 di Kedah (Pre-13th national elections public political opinion in Kedah)

Abstract

Kedah adalah sebuah negeri yang unik politiknya kerana kekuatan sokongan pengundi Melayu kepada Barisan Nasional (BN) dan PAS/PKR adalah seimbang. Justeru, sokongan pengundi Cina dan India akan menjadi penentu kepada kemenangan parti berkenaan. Justeru, kertas persidangan ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji pendapat awam di Kedah dari segi kriteria pemimpin dan parti politik pilihan pengundi, isu-isu setempat, prestasi kepimpinan dan jangkaan parti yang akan menang dalam PRU akan datang. Kajian yang menggunakan metod temubual bersemuka ini melibatkan 600 orang responden terdiri daripada pengundi di 16 Dewan Undangan Negeri (DUN) terpilih di Kedah yang dijalankan pada 6 April sehingga 9 April 2012. Dapatan kajian menunjukkan bahawa 91 peratus responden/pengundi mahukan pemimpin yang mesra dan berjiwa rakyat; parti politik yang memperjuangkan isu kemanusiaan seperti ketelusan, keadilan, hak asasi manusia dan anti rasuah (85 peratus) dan menyokong gagasan 1Malaysia dan usaha transformasi oleh Perdana Menteri (70 peratus). Isu ekonomi menjadi perbualan utama pengundi di Kedah dan mereka berpuasa hati dengan kepemimpinan di negeri Kedah dan di peringkat Persekutuan. Kajian juga menunjukkan bahawa BN terus mendapat sokongan responden (52 peratus di peringkat Parlimen dan 49 peratus di peringkat DUN), namun mereka menjangkakan Kerajaan PR negeri Kedah masih dapat bertahan (49 peratus, berbanding BN 47 peratus), sebaliknya BN masih terus menang di peringkat Persekutuan (73 peratus).

Katakunci: kepimpinan politik, kriteria pemilihan calon, parti politik, pendapat awam, pilihan raya umum, prestasi politik

Kedah is unique politically in that both the Barisan Nasional (BN) and PAS/PKR have strong support of the Malay voters thus making the Chinese and Indian voters the determining factor of the final outcome of a national election. In the 12th General Election (GE), the opposition alliance (Pakatan Rakyat) has won the state. Hence, this paper seeks to gauge the Kedahans’ public opinion on candidate and political party characteristics that will win their votes in the coming 13th GE. The analysis was based on the findings of a field study conducted in April 2012 which interviewed 600 voter respondents selected from 16 State Legislative Assembly (DUN) areas. The results revealed that voter respondents would vote for a leader who was friendly and people-oriented (91 percent); a political party which championed humanitarian causes including transparency, justice, human rights and anti-corruption (85 percent) and which also supported the 1Malaysia concept and transformation efforts of the Prime Minister (70 percent). The study also showed a likely swing to the BN although many also felt that the PR state government could retain their support . The BN was tipped to win at the federal level (73 percent).

Keywords: candidate selection criteria, general election, political leadership, political party, political performance, public political opinion