Ke Arah Pilihan Raya Umum ke-15: Dinamika Pilihan Raya Negeri Sabah 2020 dan Pengajarannya (Towards Malaysia's 15th General Election: The Sabah State Election 2020 and its Lessons)

Abstract

Penubuhan kerajaan Perikatan Nasional (PN) pada awal Mac 2020 telah merubah lanskap politik Malaysia secara signifikan terutamanya dari sudut permuafakatan antara parti, keutuhan sistem kepartian dan persaingan politik.  Permuafakatan baharu telah dibentuk oleh Bersatu, PAS, UMNO/BN dan disokong oleh GRS di satu pihak, di satu pihak lagi - Pakatan Harapan (PH) kembali kepada tiga parti asalnya iaitu PKR, DAP dan Amanah. Perpecahan politik ini, berbanding atas dasar kepartian, sebaliknya berlaku atas  pecahan kepentingan kelompok elit. Pecahan Bersatu melahirkan parti serpihan iaitu PEJUANG dan MUDA. Perpecahan dalaman PKR pula menyebabkan kem Azmin Ali menyertai Bersatu. Persaingan kekal tinggi namun sistem kepartian dan kerjasama antara parti pula melemah. Berlatar belakangkan dinamika inilah, Pilihan Raya Negeri (PRN) Sabah diadakan, selepas kerajaan negeri pimpinan Shafie Apdal ditumbangkan di luar dewan perundangan pada penghujung Julai 2020. Untuk itu, objektif utama penulisan adalah, pertama, artikel ini meneroka faktor-faktor di sebalik kemenangan Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) di dalam PRN Sabah 2020. Kedua, artikel ini menghubungkaitkan amalan, dinamika serta pengajaran daripada praktik politik dan pilihan raya Sabah 2020 dengan konteks kontemporari politik kepartian dan persaingan kuasa di peringkat nasional, ke arah Pilihan Raya Umum ke-15. Metodologi penulisan ini diasaskan dari garapan data-data sekunder dan beberapa temubual dengan beberapa aktor yang terlibat di dalam PRN itu. Implikasi PRN Sabah 2020 tidaklah semata-mata sebagai pentas untuk memilih kerajaan baharu di wilayah itu, ia turut signikan dalam merefleksi situasi politik permufakatan dan amalan kepartian kontemporari di Malaysia, serta masalah-masalah yang bersangkutan dengannya termasuk masalah lompat parti dan ketidakstabilan politik kepartian.

Kata kunci: Gabungan Rakyat Sabah, Pakatan Harapan, Perikatan Nasional, Pilihan Raya Negeri Sabah 2020, regionalisme budaya, Warisan Plus

The establishment of the Perikatan Nasional (PN) in early March 2020 has significantly changed Malaysia's political landscape particularly with regard to interparty accommodations, stability in the party system and the nature of power struggle. New coalitions have been formed with the Bersatu, PAS and UMNO/BN with the support from GPS at one side, whereas the Pakatan Harapan (PH) on the other side was down to its original component parties, which are the PKR, DAP and Amanah. The current political fragmentations were not based on the party's principles as in the past, but largely due to individual differences among the political elites. The split in Bersatu produced two splinter parties, that are PEJUANG and MUDA. The rupture in the PKR has caused Azmin Ali’s camp to move to Bersatu. The competition remains high, but coalition politics and the party system have significantly weakened. Against this backdrop, the Sabah State Election (SSE) was held after the Shafie Apdal’s government was toppled in late July 2020. The objective of this article is two-fold. Firstly, this article analyses the factors behind the success of the Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) in the aforementioned election. Secondly, this article relates the dynamics, political practices and lessons from the SSE 2020 to the current context of party politics and power competition at the national level, towards the next 15th general election. Both secondary data (from a number of news portals and the library research) and primary source (interview with three candidates in the aforementioned election) are utilised in the writing up of this article. The implications of the SSE is beyond a mundane process of the governmental change in the region, but it is also significant in reflecting the state of consociational and party politics in contemporary Malaysia, including the challenges of party-hopping and instability in the party system. 

Keywords: Gabungan Rakyat Sabah, Pakatan Harapan, Perikatan Nasional, Sabah State Election 2020, Warisan Plus